With Aaron Nola off the field, Atlanta needs to change course this offseason and concentrate on production.
Focus on locating several excellent options in free agency and trades rather than forfeiting two draft picks and a $25 million to $30 million salary for Blake Snell or Sonny Gray.
Reportedly, the Atlanta Braves entered free agency “determined” to emerge from it with a front-line starter to complement Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Spencer Strider in their 2024 lineup.
It may turn out to be more expensive and challenging than anticipated.
Because of his reliability and consistency, Aaron Nola is regarded as the safest of the best starting pitchers. As a result, he declined a larger offer from Atlanta to sign a seven-year contract to return to Philadelphia.
It’s reported that the Braves are now focused on Sonny Gray, but that’s not a good idea.
The problem is that, as we talked about a few weeks ago, if any of the pitchers (Nola, Snell, and Gray) sign here as free agents, Atlanta will forfeit its second and fifth-highest picks in the 2024 MLB Draft.
(Yoshinobu Yamamoto will incur an additional cost outside of his contract: the posting fee, which is projected to cost $30 million or more. Despite that, he remains an ideal fit for Atlanta.)
Atlanta should pass on Gray and Snell and concentrate on adding several starting pitchers in free agency if they don’t sign Yamamoto.
Following his second career Cy Young award, which was awarded unanimously, Snell is widely regarded as the kind of frontline starter who most teams should be vying for in free agency.
Even with that background, there are good reasons not to lock him down for a long-term contract.
The first is how much that deal will cost; Snell is expected to demand a significant financial and time commitment, given that he is a client of renowned super-agent Scott Boras. The starting pitcher’s aging over the course of a long contract is a risk, as our own Jake Mastroianni pointed out earlier today.
Although Snell will receive compensation for his achievements this season, it is improbable that he will duplicate them. Snell did lead all of baseball in walks (99) and walk rate (5.8), in addition to leading the league in ERA (2.25) and ERA+ (182). Regression is almost certain as his expected ERA (3.77) and Fielding Independent Pitching (3.44) both greatly exceeded his actual ERA.
It’s risky to sign Snell to a $30 million contract annually (and forfeit two draft picks) when it’s unlikely he’ll live up to the expense as soon as next year, let alone in four or five years.
And Sonny Gray has the same worry, albeit heightened, if Blake Snell’s argument hinges on how he will mature over the course of the agreement. Gray, who turned 34 earlier this month, is already past the point at which all players, regardless of skill level, begin to age. It will likely require a shorter contract, perhaps three or four seasons as opposed to Snell’s likely six or seven.
It’s also unclear if Gray can repeat his success from this season. For the first time since 2015, Gray has thrown 180 innings in a season, going 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings (32 starts). At just 0.4 HR/9, or half of his career average, he led baseball in least amount of home runs allowed.
When you combine these two factors, it becomes unlikely that Gray will have the year he had hoped for AND you will have to fork over multiple draft picks for a player who may retire or head out of free agency at the exact moment you would have thought those picks would be making their major league debuts and ready to take his place in the rotation.
Even if he is less expensive than Snell—not by much, but more along the lines of $25 million AAV as opposed to $30 million AAV, as Snell had projected—it is still not a wise long-term investment for your company.
Hire a reliever who isn’t on a qualifying deal, and then add to it with a “buy low” rehab endeavor.
Choose quantity over quality if you are unable to obtain the best option.
Both left- and right-handed starting pitchers of high caliber are on the market. If Max Fried leaves in free agency, lefty Jordan Montgomery or righty Eduardo Rodriguez could move up to the #2 spot in the rotation and take over at #3 starting in 2024.
With a reclamation project like Lucas Giolito or Luis Severino behind them, they could be able to reclaim their former glory and provide Atlanta with insurance in the event that Fried walks in 2025 on a shorter two-year deal (or a one-year deal with a sizable club option).
Additionally, there are injured pitchers who you now have to carry on a 40-man roster while they recover from their injuries and get ready to play again in 2025. Although signing Brandon Woodruff would come with a high price tag, Tyler Mahle is the ideal pitcher to carry out this plan because of Atlanta’s experience treating Tommy John patients and familiarity with his surgeon.
Reminder: Since the Braves paid the competitive balance tax the previous season, signing a qualifying offer recipient results in the loss of two picks. The non-payroll costs are too high for Snell and Gray. RHP Drue Hackenberg (#59 overall) and RHP Garrett Bauman (#126 overall) would have been the two picks, ranked second and fifth, respectively, in the most recent draft. RHP JR Ritchie and C Drake Baldwin were the players that Atlanta selected with those picks in 2022. That’s a steep price to pay for a team that has been successful in locating productive mid-round picks; Spencer Strider was selected in the fourth round in 2020, Michael Harris II in the third round in 2019 and AJ Smith-Shawver in the seventh round in 2021.
Furthermore, losing $1 million in international bonus pool space would only make an already weak farm system even worse. This farm system is among the worst in MLB due to trades and multi-year restrictions on international signings.
Use these open roster spots wisely, sign multiple players, and hold onto your draft picks. Value can be found while keeping international bonus pool space and draft capital, which is crucial.
Also, you have more money available to extend Max Fried’s contract because you did not commit $30 million to Blake Snell or $25 million to Sonny Gray.
