How each MLB team can be affected by a trade or free agent signing
right-hander Aaron Nola was re-signed by the Philadelphia Phillies to a seven-year, $172 million contract during the off-season. It’s the eleventh-highest total value contract ever awarded to a pitcher, and it comes in right around the projected average annual salary, albeit a year or two longer than anticipated, for a pitcher who has been reliable but has a 4.09 ERA over the last three seasons.
Nonetheless, Dave Dombrowski typically gets his wish when it comes to players, and Nola has been a key component of the Phillies’ recent success. We’ll see how the rest of the market is impacted by Nola’s deal, but it’s possible that the cost of pitching will be even more than expected, forcing some teams to settle for trades or look for pitching assistance.
Nonetheless, Dave Dombrowski typically gets his wish when it comes to players, and Nola has been a key component of the Phillies’ recent success. We’ll have to wait and see how Nola’s contract impacts the rest of the market, but it’s possible that pitching will cost even more than expected, forcing some teams to settle for second- and third-tier starters that are available in free agency or hunt for pitching assistance through trades.
After the Phillies made their biggest offseason trade, let’s think about what the other 29 teams could do to win the postseason. This is an enjoyable exercise that is similar to assembling a jigsaw puzzle. Since we can only use a player once—after all, only one team will be able to sign Shohei Ohtani—it’s important to make sure everything fits within reasonable payroll constraints. It’s also important to remember that teams need backup plans for their backup plans. The top 25 free agents from Kiley McDaniel’s top 50 list will find a home with us, and we’ll also make a few trades.
successive postseason visits. It makes sense for Ohtani to drive up I-5 north if he is fed up with losing in Anaheim.For a few years now, the Dodgers have been preparing for an Ohtani run. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are the only players they have signed after 2025, and even though the average annual value of the best players is currently approaching $30 million, both players have tax rates of less than $30 million annually. As they approach the offseason, their current projected payroll is via
Rockies for the fifteenth, so they have extra cash to spend lavishly. During his tenure, Andrew Friedman has mostly shied away from long-term contracts, but like Betts and Freeman, he will make an exception for superstars. Nothing is larger than
Ohtani won’t improve the rotation in 2024, so the Dodgers will likely acquire one or more starters through trade or signing. Severino feels like one of those Dodgers reclamation projects, coming off a 6.65 ERA for the Yankees.)
In exchange for RHP Bryan Woo, OF Cade Marlowe, RHP Prelander Berroa, and C Harry Ford, the Seattle Mariners acquire OF Juan Soto from the San Diego Padres. They also sign LHP Blake Snell (6 years, $150 million).
We did say to win the winter, didn’t we? Buster Olney recently stated that Soto will be traded “100%” on Michael Kay’s radio show. After reviewing the Padres’ payroll situation, Jeff Passan stated on the Yes Network that Juan Soto “simply can’t be a part of it if you want a payroll of $200 million, as the Padres would like to do for next season.” Alden Gonzalez summarized the general managers’ meetings’ talk about the Soto trade. The Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, and Cubs are the betting favorites to sign Soto, but the Mariners might be able to sneak in here while those teams are chasing Ohtani. Recall that A.J. Preller and Jerry Dipoto have completed multiple transactions in the past.
Woo, Marlowe, and Berroa give the Padres three major league ready players, including two possible starting pitchers (which the Padres need given the availability of free agents Snell, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, and Nick Martinez). A top-100 prospect is Ford. That’s a nice haul for one season of Soto, but it’s not what the Padres gave up to get him.
Following their 2022 postseason drought break, the Mariners took it safe in the offseason and allowed the Rangers to pass them by. They must think broadly and step outside of their comfort zone. Why then end at Soto? Snell is a native of Seattle, and although it’s common to overvalue a person’s hometown, he was an avid fan of Ken Griffey Jr. growing up. Furthermore, despite the perception that Seattle has strong pitching and a poor offensive game, T-Mobile Park boosts the offense in the following ways: In 2023, the Mariners’ road OPS was actually sixth in the majors, despite their rotation ranking 12th in terms of ERA and OPS allowed.
Sure, the Mariners would have to increase payroll significantly, but Soto’s estimated $33 million salary is only going to have an impact for one season. With three first-round selections in 2023 and a still-deep farm system, they have positioned themselves to make a move like this. Now picture a lineup led by Soto and Julio Rodriguez with a rotation that includes Snell, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, and Bryce Miller (hopefully with Robbie Ray returning in the second half).
The Mets had the largest rostered payroll going into the offseason, at about $263 million, but David Stearns, the new president of baseball operations, is kind of in a bind: after a disappointing season, you don’t want to punt 2024 with a payroll that high, but you also don’t want to make the same mistakes and lose 87 games once more. It will be difficult to balance competing in 2024 with developing a stronger roster for the future, as Stearns noted.
nd is regarded as one of the world’s top five or six pitchers, which is why Kiley’s estimate is slightly over $30 million annually. Despite being undersized at 5 feet 10 inches, he has excellent command and throws a fastball in the mid-90s with a plus splitter and curveball. In 171 innings, he gave up just two home runs.
season without a break below 2.00. Though Yamamoto lacks size, he has all the qualities you look for in a starter, so don’t expect him to maintain his home run rate this low. Compared to Kodai Senga, who signed with the Mets and had a 2.98 ERA in his rookie season, he is superior. Steve Cohen won’t hesitate to make the biggest offer if the Mets are serious about acquiring him.
divisive in the analyst community. After being non-tendered by the Dodgers, he had a fantastic season (2023) with the Cubs, batting.307 with 26 home runs and generating 4.4 WAR. He’s about to enter his prime at age 28. 2021 and 2022 saw him perform appallingly at the plate as well. Was that a result of unresolved injuries? The Angels, who will likely have more money to spend than the Yankees or Blue Jays, are the team most likely to make a bold bid for Bellinger, even though Bellinger would be a good fit for either team without Ohtani. Let’s not forget Martinez,
The Orioles are in a very fortunate situation. They just had 101 victories. To build around, they have young talent like Grayson Rodriguez, Adley Rutschman, and Gunnar Henderson. Additionally, they are developing a number of future stars, including Jackson Holliday and Samuel Basallo. Mike Elias, the general manager, joined the Astros from their farm system, where Jeff Luhnow used depth in the farm system to trade for star pitchers instead of signing them as free agents. The Astros acquired Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander, and Gerrit Cole through trades.
I have the Orioles trading for Burnes in hopes of obtaining a No. 1 starter in the mold of Verlander or Cole. Although he is only guaranteed one more season, in the last three seasons he has ranked first in OPS allowed and seventh in WAR among pitchers. However, why end there? They can raise the payroll if necessary. That might be a different starting pitcher, but after losing closer, they also need support in the bullpen.
Hicks, a hard thrower, could dominate the eighth or ninth inning. The lineup stays the same with Jordan Westburg moving to second base, Heston Kjerstad to a 1B/RF/DH role, Holliday possibly ready by midseason, and Henderson moving to third base.
After 92 victories and a division title, the Brewers would hate to see their team retool, but with Burnes entering free agency and Brandon Woodruff not being tendered, it makes sense to maybe take a step back. Burnes is believed to be available. Although Mayo projects as one of the best bats in the minors and is major league ready after hitting, the Brewers may be looking for a three-for-one deal.29 home runs and 93 walks in 290/.410/.564 between Double-A and Triple-A.
Last week, White Sox General Manager Chris Getz stated, “I’ve made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.” It’s not quite the same as Roland Hemond and Bill Veeck at a table in the hotel lobby during the winter meetings in 1975, with a sign that says “Open for Business,” but it’s pretty close. Getz already completed the five-for-one trade for Atlanta’s Aaron Bummer, so we’ll see if he can match Veeck’s six player-for-player deals from that season.
During the World Series, Diamondbacks General Manager Mike Hazen bemoaned not having acquired a starting pitcher by the trade deadline. This offseason, he’ll get one. We made a prediction in this area last year that the Diamondbacks would trade for Gabriel Moreno. See if we can get two for two. Cease, who still has two seasons left on his team contract, may not have been able to duplicate his 2022 Cy Young winner season, but pitching coach Brent Strom can do wonders with him. It appears impressive that Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Cease, and playoff Brandon Pfaadt could be in the top four. Although Jimenez isn’t particularly valuable—0.3 WAR in 2023, 5.6 over his career—Arizona needs a DH, and his club options in 2025 and 2026 make this a low-risk pick.
