When Alabama defeats Georgia to win the SEC, what does ESPN say about their chances of qualifying for the playoffs?
After the first College Football Playoff weekly rankings were announced in October, a hypothetical question was raised. Since then, it has gained national attention.
Does Alabama qualify for the playoffs if it defeats Georgia the following week and wins the SEC?
According to ESPN’s statistics, Alabama, a probable SEC champion, is currently more likely to miss the playoffs than to make them.
Even with victories in the Iron Bowl and SEC championship game, Alabama is given a 32 percent chance of making it into the four-team playoff field by ESPN’s “playoff predictor” machine, which was updated following the release of the fourth weekly CFP rankings on Tuesday. It is less than the 54% that it was last week and even higher than it was previously.
Even after losing to Alabama, ESPN’s metrics give Georgia a 76 percent chance of qualifying for the postseason.
The selection committee has Alabama ranked behind two other one-loss teams—Oregon, which is still ranked No. 6, and Texas, which is still ranked No. 7—for each of the first four weeks of the CFP rankings. When compared to Oregon and Texas, two ESPN analysts gave their reasons for believing that Alabama would not make it to the playoffs during Tuesday night’s rankings reveal show.
ESPN pundit and former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy declared, “Texas beat Alabama.” “The outcomes must be significant. The outcomes must be respected. The college football community would be harmed if the committee set a precedent by selecting Alabama over Texas. It would. You have to respect the regular season, and placing Alabama ahead of Texas would imply that it is unimportant. You don’t want to establish that kind of precedent.
Kirk Herbstreit of ESPN, meanwhile, stated that considering how much each team has looked to him this season, he would currently choose Oregon over Alabama.
Even though Oregon and Alabama haven’t faced the same opponents, Herbstreit believes Oregon has been a stronger team than Alabama throughout the season. “I think Oregon has the advantage.”
The current ranking of the top eight teams by the committee is identical to what would have been produced this week under the previous BCS formula, which was in use until 2013. Alabama is ranked behind both Texas and Oregon.
In summary, the following are ESPN’s most recent odds for every participant to advance to the four-team playoff:
The locations of every commit for the Crimson Tide this weekend are broken down here.
William Sanders (OL) of Brookwood High School did not qualify for the playoffs, and Justin Okoronkwo (LB) completed his senior year more than a month ago. Two weeks ago, the following players lost their first-round playoff games: 2025 Mason Short (OL), Jay Lindsey (TE), Cayden Jones (LB), and Julian Sayin (QB). Last week, the following players lost in the second round of the playoffs: 2025 Zion Grady (EDGE), 2025 Dontrell Glover (OL), 2025 Myles Johnson (ATH), Jameer Grimsley (CB), Casey Poe (OL), Sterling Dixon (EDGE), and 2025 Myles Johnson (ATH).
This week, two games—one for a State Championship—will pit two Alabama commits against each other. For the CIF D1 Championship, Peyton Woodyard (S) of St. John Bosco will rematch with Mater Dei and Zabien Brown (CB). In the Class 6A AHSAA State Playoffs quarterfinals, Jeremiah Beaman (DL) of Parker High School and Dre Kirkpatrick Jr. (S) of Gadsden City will square off back on the east coast. This Friday, Baylor School’s Amari Jefferson (WR) is competing for a state championship as well.
Choosing A little over two weeks remain until College Football Playoff Sunday, and there are an almost unbelievable number of contenders still fighting for a spot in the four-team field. At this stage of the season, nine teams, including five unbeaten teams, still have a chance to earn a bid, which is unprecedented. With rivalry week and the conference championship game still to come, mayhem is imminent.
For some teams, mostly the unbeaten ones who decide their own fate for a conference championship, the route to the CFP is straightforward; for the others, however, it is far more difficult. It is almost impossible to count all of the possible outcomes given the length of the list of possible scenarios. If there are several one-loss teams, the selection committee’s judgment may ultimately determine who moves on and who doesn’t.
However, there is a single, easy route that every candidate hopes to follow in order to get their bid accepted.
There will be a ton of chaos in any scenario where Louisville advances to the College Football Playoffs. But the easiest route for the Cardinals begins on Selection Sunday as the ACC champions with one loss. In addition to Iowa winning the Big Ten and Washington winning the Pac-12, they would also need losses from Texas and Alabama. In that case, Oregon AND the Michigan/Ohio State loser are out of the running to make the four-team field. For Louisville to succeed, a number of things must occur.
