Virginia Tech has made an offer to 2025 DL Trajen Odom.
Trajen Odom, a Panther Creek Class of 2025 defensive lineman, has already received over 20 verbal scholarship offers in his junior year. Virginia Tech threw their hat in the ring earlier this week.
On Monday, Odom reported receiving a scholarship offer from Virginia Tech.
Oh, well, well. Everything boils down to this. Of course, “all” is relative because we’re talking about a 5-6 Virginia Tech team versus a 3-8 Virginia team, but this is the big game.
The Commonwealth Cup battle, with bowl eligibility on the line for the Hokies.
Rivalries like this are what keep college sports interesting. It’s about the neighbor with the flag you pass every day on your way to work. The coworker who has a bobblehead on their desk. The parent of the annoying child on your youth sports team. It can even be a family feud within your bloodline.
The big picture is unmistakable. The Commonwealth Cup trophy is awarded to the winner of this game.
If Virginia Tech wins, the team will go bowling. Almost everyone agreed that six wins and a championship would be a worthy accomplishment this year. Its mission was completed with a victory. They came up short with a loss.
At this point, Virginia is playing for pride and momentum, and they would love to be the spoiler.
This is a fascinating matchup. On paper, the Hokies appear to have a good chance of winning. Virginia’s flaws are consistent with what we know makes the Hokies successful: a limited rushing attack, a quarterback who is prone to turnovers, an offensive line that allows sacks and TFLs, and a defense that does not generate sacks or TFLs.
All of this has resulted in positive results for the Hokies this season, so they should be confident heading to Charlottesville.
But the sensation isn’t quite the same.
Tech is coming off a 35-28 home loss to NC State last week that was far from close.
Virginia is coming off their best performance of the season, a 30-27 win over Duke last week. Six of their last seven FBS games have been decided by a single point.
Anthony Colandrea has emerged as their future quarterback. And the level of effort with which they play is obvious. They currently have a lot of positive momentum behind them. They’re also playing at home.
Finally, it’s a rivalry game. Strange things happen. Both teams are flawed, so there will be a handful of big moments on each side. The team that hangs in the longest will probably win.
The defense at UVA is a bit of a mixed bag. They are ranked No. 56 in DFEI with a.30 rating, which indicates that they are slightly above average. This is due to strong late-season performances against top-tier opponents such as North Carolina (No. 10 OFEI), Miami (No. 38 OFEI), and Louisville (No. 19 OFEI), as well as an above-average performance against Duke (No. 36 OFEI) last week. They’ve recently come to play against good teams.
However, according to Bill Connelly’s SP+, they are the No. 99 defense. Some of their other metrics are simply brutal.
45% (T-104) defensive success rate
49.2% (No. 82) Defensive Available Yards
Defensive Touchdown Rate (No. 102): 31.9%
Drive Rate Defensive Value: 53.4% (No. 101)
Defensive First Down Rate: 73.3% (No. 103)
Busted Drive Rate: 7.8% (No. 106)
UVA’s rush defense, in particular, has struggled, and they don’t generate negative plays in the backfield. That’s the kind of defense Vermont has had success against this season.
To begin, consider UVA’s rush defense. The Wolfpack dominated Virginia Tech at the line of scrimmage last week, forcing the Hokies to go to the air early. That should not occur this week.
The Hoosiers rank 115th in the nation in rushing yards per game (178.36). And it’s only gotten worse. They are allowing 214.67 yards per game in November, including a 305-yard loss to Georgia Tech.
The ‘Hoos allowed teams to average 4.28 yards per carry from week two to week ten. Against them, no team averaged more than five yards per carry.
Every opponent has averaged more than 5.5 yards per carry in November (GT 6.93, Louisville 5.81, Duke 5.68).
They allow a 48% success rate on rushing plays, ranking T-119 in the FBS.
They rank 111 in the FBS with 3.315 line yards per carry (rushing yards attributable to the OL).
The Hokies have averaged 168.45 yards per game (No. 53), 4.51 yards per carry (No. 51), a 44% rushing success rate (T-55), and 3.03 line yards per rush (No. 86).
They averaged 7.22 yards per carry against BC and 7.75 yards per carry against NC State in their last two games. Tech’s offensive line isn’t great, but they’ll be able to keep UVA off the field long enough for RB Bhayshul Tuten (assuming he gets the ball more than twice) and Drones to get open.
The second component is the amount of disruption caused by UVA’s defense. And the answer isn’t very much.
This season, the ‘Hoos have 11 sacks, which ranks 132nd (out of 133) in the FBS.
This season, they have 51 tackles for loss, which is T-113.
Their defensive stuff rate (running plays stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage) is 15%, ranking them T-86.
T-92’s defensive havoc rate (TFL, forced fumble, interception, pass breakup) is 15%.
Tech’s offensive confidence must be shaken after last week, but these numbers are more in line with the BC defense that Tech worked with two weeks ago than the Louisville or NC State defenses that dominated Tech.
BC ranks 129th in sacks and 133rd in TFL, while Louisville ranks 36th and 36th, respectively, and NC State ranks T-19 and T-47 in those categories.
This week, the Hokies should be much more at ease on offense.
The front seven is responsible for a large portion of UVA’s inability to get into the backfield. Their havoc rate from their defensive line and linebackers is 8%, ranking them T-114 in the FBS. For much of the season, they simply haven’t been good enough up front.
Beginning DE Ben Smiley (52.4 points per game) and freshman backup DE According to PFF DEF grade, Mekhi Buchanan (52.2) is one of the three worst defensive ends in the ACC.
Chico Bennett (59.5), a BANDIT (basically a hybrid OLB/DE), is the No. 47 DE (out of 59).
Michael Diatta (52.5) is the ACC’s second-worst DT, and he played 40+ snaps last week.
LB The ACC’s worst linebacker is James Jackson (45.8).
The key cogs in the middle are DTs Aaron Faumui and Jahmeer Carter. They have collectively played over 4,000 snaps in their careers. But they haven’t been very good this year. Faumui (63.2 DEF) ranks 32nd in the ACC, while Carter (58.8) ranks 44th. Faumui leads the ‘Hoos this season with 6.5 TFL, but that ranks T-31 in the conference.
DE At DE, Paul Akere is essentially a co-starter with Smiley and has been the Cavaliers’ best defensive lineman. His 68.3 DEF grade ranks him 28th out of 59 ACC DEs, and his eight defensive stops rank him 46th overall.
They simply lack top-tier talent at the point of attack.
True freshman MLB Kam Robinson has been a bright spot for UVA’s front seven. Despite not playing until week four, he’s had a fantastic season. Robinson has 26 tackles this season, ranking T-16 among ACC LBs. UVA hopes he will be their starter for the next few seasons.
LB Although Josh Ahern is not on the depth chart, he is the true backup linebacker in terms of snaps. His DEF grade of 62.9 ranks him 33rd among ACC LBs.
UVA’s secondary is the defense’s strength, but strength does not imply shutdown.
Overall, UVA ranks 61st in the FBS in passing yards per game (223.4) and 96th in completion percentage (62.3%). In comparison, here are the stats for Tech’s most recent opponents:
NC State is ranked 27th in completion percentage (57.4%) and 49th in yards per game (215.5).
Boston College ranks 38th (58.8%) and 21st (189.3) in completion percentage.
Louisville ranks 12th in completion percentage (55.3%) and 55th in yards per game (219).
While UVA’s secondary is their defense’s strength, and they’ve held up remarkably well given the lack of pressure their front generates, the Hokies have recently faced tougher secondaries.
FS According to PFF, Jonas Sanker is the group’s leader and the best player on the UVA defense. His 81.6 DEF rating ranks T-17 among ACC defenders.
He’s joined by true freshman strong safety Caleb Hardy, who has seen his role grow as the season progresses. He only played 13 snaps against Maryland, BC, and William & Mary in the early part of the season, but he hasn’t left the field since Week 9 and played 75 snaps against the Blue Devils last week.
