September 22, 2024

There is already enough talent on the Phillies roster to win a World Series.

The Philadelphia Phillies fell two games short of winning the World Series in 2022.

They were just one victory away from making it back to the Fall Classic in 2023.

The 2024 Phillies are already World Series contenders; they will probably have a payroll that exceeds $250 million for the entire season. Their starting rotation continues to be among the best and deepest in the league, and they have star players in the lineup along with younger role players who have improved year after year. Like every other MLB bullpen, theirs has its ups and downs, but overall it is regarded as one of the better bullpens in the game.

Therefore, it should come as no surprise when Dave Dombrowski basically concedes that the Phillies won’t be playing at their best this week

It’s not the most spectacular offseason; several major-league sources claim that the Phillies and San Diego have not discussed a trade for Juan Soto. They are not offering Yoshinobu Yamamoto their best bid. They are not going after Josh Hader or Blake Snell, two other elite pitchers. When prices drop, they will add complementary players, but for now, they are content to watch the biggest pieces come off the board. Everyone who returns from a winning team will be held accountable, including the coaches and players. – Matt Gelb, the sports writer

Without a doubt, Juan Soto’s addition would greatly improve the lineup. The Phillies would have the best rotation in baseball if Yamamoto signed. Emmanuel Clase’s acquisition would elevate the pen to the pinnacle of baseball. For the record, as well…

I fully support any of those moves, as well as several other high-profile additions Dombrowski might make, but other teams are vying for these players because they are more desperate and are prepared to pay more or make greater sacrifices to get them.

Compared to the Phillies, those teams are further away from a championship.

The thought of the Phillies “running it back” has some fans upset, and to some extent, I can understand that. The offense faltered in the postseason at the worst possible times in each of the previous two years. The Phillies hitters turned into a collection of masters over the last three games of the World Series against Houston and the final two games of the NLCS.

Achievement is not a straight line. After years of trying, numerous teams have knocked on the door before eventually kicking it down. Consider the Phillies from 1976–1980. Three consecutive division titles without a World Series followed by a fourth-place result in 1979 before the 1980 championship. Despite having superior talent on paper, the 2009–11 teams were unable to win it all, as the 2008 Phillies emerged victorious.

However, why not simply sign or trade for these players? Why not improve your chances of winning? Why not create a huge impression? Once more, there are reasons why I would LOVE to sign Yamamoto or trade for Soto.

This season, Soto will receive more than $30 million in arbitration; if he were to sign a long-term deal, his average annual value would probably be that much over a minimum of twelve seasons. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper already have significant long-term commitments from the Phillies. Is a third affordable for them? This offseason, Zack Wheeler and the Phillies need to reach an extension agreement. After the Aaron Nola contract was signed, signing Yamamoto to a $300 million contract would almost certainly prevent that from occurring.

Right now, the Phillies are about $20 million below the second luxury tax. Acquiring one of those players pushes them above that threshold and roughly $10 million below the third luxury tax tier, which entails steep losses in foreign bonus pool funds, exacerbated tax issues, and compensation for draft picks. There is a limit to what an owner like John Middleton is willing to do.

I believe.

In any case, the majority of the 2023 Phillies would be content to run back. You’re not being woken up by a bugle in the morning, but it’s okay. Assuming nothing unexpected happens, Bryce Harper’s health should be good to go come January 1. It won’t take four months and a staged standing ovation for Trea Turner to warm up. Alec Bohm, Brandon Marsh, and Bryson Stott ought to keep getting better. Even though Nick Castellanos’ inconsistent play drives you crazy and Kyle Schwarber’s power surge doesn’t materialize until June, the rest of the lineup is young enough to keep chugging along. There is a good, deep rotation. There are several experienced postseason hard throwers in the bullpen.

The Phillies are planning to act. They plan to add another outfield player (Lourdes Gurriel, Tommy Pham, etc.), sign a replacement for Craig Kimbrel (Jordan Hicks, etc.), and acquire some bench support. Johan Rojas might make a change in ’24. Dombrowski and Middleton will be prepared to jump at the chance to acquire a more significant player who is languishing on the bench or to make a trade for a player a team is just unable to bring back.

Try not to worry about a team that won ninety games the previous season and almost made it back to the World Series in the interim. Continuity is a good quality.

While we can hope for a big swing from the Phillies, championships are not always won.

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