NFL playoff picture: Chances for the postseason as of Week 16 of the 2023 campaign
The most recent Next Gen Stats model offers precise projections of each team’s chances of making the playoffs by simulating the rest of the NFL season 10,000 times. The NGS Analytics team will provide the most recent probability-based preview of the playoff picture for the remainder of the regular season.
What sets apart the playoff probability model from Next Gen Stats? Postseason odds are updated dynamically every five minutes during live games, incorporating the most recent win probabilities from NGS for every game that is currently in progress in each simulation.
A few things before we get started:
Unless otherwise specified below, all odds are current as of 3:30 p.m. ET on December 19.
Terms defined: If Win: The probability of a team qualifying for the postseason based on the outcome of their next game.
If Lose: A team’s prospects of qualifying for the postseason in the event that they lose their next game.
Leverage in the playoffs: refers to the measurable effect that a single game has on a team’s chances of making the playoffs. It is computed as the differential between a team’s chances of qualifying for the postseason if they win their next game and if they lose. This measurement basically expresses the importance of a game in terms of making the playoffs. A game with a high playoff leverage is crucial because it means that the result will have a big impact on the team’s chances of making the playoffs, while a game with a low playoff leverage means that the team’s chances of making the playoffs will be less affected by the result.
All things considered, there is a three-team race for the AFC’s top seed, and the outcome of the Dolphins-Ravens game in Week 17 could determine who gets the conference’s coveted first-round bye. Surprisingly, the Colts ranked seventh have a two in 10,000 chance of reaching the summit on a narrow path. There would be a playoff if the Colts prevail, the Ravens lose, and the Browns, Chiefs, and Dolphins all go winless in their final three games — Miami’s only victory coming on New Year’s Eve against Baltimore.First place was tied in three places. The Colts win that tie because they would have a superior conference record (8-4 vs. 7-5) and a superior common-game record (6-0 vs. 4-2) over the Dolphins. Thus, despite being extremely unlikely, a (frenzied) analysis of the schedule shows a glimmer of hope for Shane Steichen’s team:
Every team in the picture has something to lose in the final stretch, even though three of the seven spots have already been taken: There are still three division titles, two wild-card berths, and the conference’s top seed up for grabs; however, the race to the top has grown considerably less appealing following the Eagles’ defeat by the Seahawks.
On Thursday night, Week 16 gets underway with a bang as the seventh-seeded Rams In one of the most important games of the entire 16-game schedule, the team will host the ninth-seeded Saints. A loss for the Rams would severely harm their chances of making the playoffs, even though a win would propel both teams’ respective chances into the 70% range. As a matter of fact, this week’s 58-point playoff leverage holds true for no team.
The Bills are currently playing at the highest level in the league, but their early-season setbacks—losses to Jacksonville, Cincinnati, and Denver—are starting to bite them in the rear. They will require assistance to qualify for the tournament as they are currently ranked fifth out of the five eight-win teams in the AFC. But Buffalo has a real chance to go into Week 18 looking for its 11th victory, a wild-card spot, and even an opportunity to win the AFC East (more on that below) with games against the struggling Chargers and Patriots scheduled.The Broncos, who are ranked 11th overall, have a higher playoff percentage than the 10th-seeded Steelers, in part because of their second-easiest remaining schedule, which includes the Patriots, Chargers, and Raiders, which presents a chance to improve their conference record (which is currently 4-5). They have also defeated Buffalo and Cleveland, and they are still theoretically contenders for the AFC West championship. Despite everything, Denver’s season would virtually end with a loss to New England on Sunday night.
