The First Read: Should I buy or sell 18 playoff contenders? Plus, the most exciting game of Week 17 and the MVP rankings
Before anything else, though, let’s take a look at the postseason prospects of 18 teams as we approach the last two weeks of the regular season.
Week 16 showed us how foolish it is to believe that the NFL is getting any more predictable, just when it looked like it might be. The Patriots pulled off a huge upset in Denver, while the Raiders recently defeated the Chiefs in Kansas City. Four teams vying for a spot in the playoffs—Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston—were soundly defeated, while Buffalo, Green Bay, and Seattle managed to avoid losses against teams with some of the worst records in the league. And here’s something to try if you truly want to get crazy: In order to assist struggling wide receiver George Pickens in restoring his recently damaged
The takeaway from this is that the last two weeks of the regular season will be crazy. There are still a lot of teams vying for postseason spots, and it’s difficult to determine which ones to believe. This edition of The First Read will be helpful in that regard. When it comes to making postseason predictions, this writer is going to tell you exactly who you should trust and who you should be prepared to bury.
We’ll exclude them from the conversation because we already have six teams that have secured spots: Baltimore and Miami in the AFC; San Francisco, Philadelphia, Detroit, and Dallas in the NFC. For the others, we’ll handle them similarly to stocks: This is
After losing to Las Vegas on Monday, the Chiefs are no longer in the running for the conference’s top seed, and there is a valid question about how long this team will be competitive when the playoffs start. The Raiders dominated Kansas City in a manner that exposed every issue facing the Chiefs right now, including inconsistent receivers, poor pass protection, costly penalties, and turnovers. As unbelievable as it sounds, if the Chiefs collapse completely over the next two weeks, they could miss the playoffs altogether. But with Andy Reid in the middle and Patrick Mahomes under center, the chances of that happening aren’t great. That’s what you have to believe will happen because those two
It is difficult to feel optimistic about the Jaguars’ chances of turning things around as they are stuck in a four-game losing streak. Three of the last four opponents have scored at least 30 points, demonstrating how terrible the defense has been lately. Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback, also struggles to stay well. He has had to deal with a high ankle sprain, a concussion, and a shoulder injury from Sunday’s loss to Tampa Bay over the past few weeks. The good news is that Carolina and Tennessee, two teams that have had difficulty all season, will be the Jaguars’ final two opponents. That ought to be sufficient to see them through to the finish line in the competition to win the AFC South.
It is surprising that a former Baltimore Raven who turns 39 in January would be the quarterback who entices long-suffering Browns supporters. However, Joe Flacco has taken that action. Before he arrived a little more than a month ago, head coach Kevin Stefanski was having trouble finding a replacement for injured starter Deshaun Watson. Ever since Flacco got back on the field and off his couch, things have been dynamic. The Browns already had a strong defense that could carry them through tough times. What Flacco has given this team is a signal-caller who has won a Super Bowl and still has enough left in him to make them very dangerous come January. It is not a question of whether the Browns make the playoffs here. It’s the quantity
It was all the Bills needed to defeat the Chargers 24–22 and get out of Los Angeles. At this point in the season, style points are irrelevant. Winning solves problems, and for the past three weeks, Buffalo has been doing just that. They’ve defeated the Chiefs and Cowboys, and four weeks ago, they forced the Eagles into overtime in Philadelphia before losing. This team is exciting because of their creative defense and the potential for big plays from running backs Leonard Fournette and James Cook in the closing minutes. The Bills can still have some frustrating moments, as evidenced by their victory over the Chargers. It also demonstrated that they have different strategies these days to win, and Josh Allen, the quarterback, isn’t hesitant to rely on
The Colts are disintegrating at the most inconvenient moment. You could argue that their rout of Pittsburgh two weeks ago was encouraging, but they have now dropped their last two games, most recently a 29-10 drubbing at the hands of Atlanta on Sunday. With all due respect, the Falcons shouldn’t be winning by 19 points at this point in the season against teams that should be in the playoffs. Hell, a week ago they were defeated 9–7 by a terrible Carolina team. The Colts have faced numerous obstacles this season, which makes their most recent loss feel even more concerning. They might just be losing momentum as the stakes rise every week. This team had a 7-5 record at one point.
C.J. Stroud, the quarterback for the Texans, is hoping to get out of the concussion protocol quickly. They managed to win one game without him before Cleveland thoroughly hammered them this past Sunday. Losing to a Browns team that is playing at a high level is obviously nothing to be ashamed of. It’s also undeniable that the schedule has run out of gimmes. The Titans are visiting Houston this week, and the Texans needed overtime to defeat Tennessee two weeks ago. The season finale against Indianapolis follows, which may also have divisional title implications. Despite their tenacity, the Texans require Stroud to complete the task.
