New Year’s Day brings college football fans some of the best bowl game odds matchups of the season.

The first round of the 2024 College Football Playoff features a showdown between the Big-12 and Pac-12 champs, respectively, as the Texas Longhorns (12-1) and Washington Huskies (13-0) compete in the Allstate Sugar Bowl to see who moves on to the National Championship to face either Michigan or Alabama.

Looking at the college football odds, Steve Sarkisian’s squad is expected to win as a 4.5-point favorite, while the total has been set at 63.5.

Let’s turn our attention to the player prop market for this article to find the best value for this terrific matchup. Read on to find out which props I’m focused on in my college football player prop picks for the Sugar Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and the Washington Huskies on Monday, January 1.

The Texas Longhorns found a star at the running back position in Jonathon Brooks, who took off for 1,425 scrimmage yards and 11 touchdowns before being lost for the season with a torn ACL after 11 games. He’s listed as ESPN’s No. 1 running back in the Class of 2024 and is sure to hear his name called early in the NFL Draft if he does indeed declare.

Who has stepped up in his stead? Sarkisian has recruited well, and that rings true at the skill positions, where five-star true freshman CJ Baxter has emerged as a go-to option in the backfield. Running back coach Tashard Choice has relied upon the No. 1 running back in the 2023 recruiting class and we should see a healthy dose of the young star on New Year’s Day’s big stage.

young star on New Year’s Day’s big stage.

Baxter ran 18 times for 61 yards in relief of Brooks against TCU and was featured again the next week with 20 carries for 117 yards and five receptions for 13 yards against Iowa State. He suffered a hip pointer in a blowout win against Texas Tech in the regular season finale but was able to return to find the end zone while touching the ball 16 times against Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship.

Baxter is primed for success in this matchup against a soft Washington Huskies front that ranks just 130th in EPA per rush and 127th in rushing success rate. Those are brutal numbers for any team, let alone one competing in the playoffs. The defensive line has been especially vulnerable, checking in at 132nd in line yards and 128th in both stuff rate and front-seven havoc.

There are several Baxter props that I like on Monday — his rushing yardage prop is set at 81.5 at FanDuel, and I’ll likely be all over his receiving yardage prop once that’s released. He’s -112 at FanDuel to score a touchdown and +470 to score twice, both of which look good.

I’ll use his anytime touchdown prop of -112 as the best bet for this article. I’m sure that this line will move in one direction only, and I’d be fine playing it up to -145. If it gets too wide, I’d rather play one of his yardage props as he sets up well for success on the ground and is utilized a fair amount in the passing game. For the more adventurous bettors, consider him to score twice.