When it comes to Phils’ OF, Dombrowski keeping an open mind
This story was excerpted from Todd Zolecki’s Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
A few days before Christmas, the Phillies learned that Yoshinobu Yamamoto had accepted a $325 million offer from the Dodgers. The next day, Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said that the team planned to move forward by finding pitching depth before Spring Training.
But that depth does not mean Blake Snell or Josh Hader. Sources have said repeatedly throughout the offseason that both are unlikely to sign with Philadelphia.
What about an outfielder?
“Not outfield,” Dombrowski said then. “When we talked about outfield, we said [we’d] keep an open mind, but we also are in a position with [Johan] Rojas where we’re really not trying to block his path to the big leagues.”
That thinking has not changed, Dombrowski reiterated this week.
If an opportunity presents itself, yes, the Phillies will act on it. But the plan is to have Nick Castellanos in right field, Brandon Marsh in left and Rojas in center, an alignment that worked well late in the 2023 regular season. The Phillies believe it can work again — if Rojas hits. Rojas posted 2.5 WAR in only 59 games as a rookie, which tied for seventh on the team with Taijuan Walker.
Rojas was so impactful because he played Gold Glove-caliber center field and because he had a .772 OPS in 164 plate appearances.
But he also went 4-for-43 with one walk and 15 strikeouts in the postseason, which is why there is such external concern about the Phillies’ outfield depth. But the team’s belief that Rojas can produce enough offensively, while knowing he will be one of the game’s truly elite center fielders, explains why they are not planning to acquire a prototypical fourth outfielder before Spring Training.
A prototypical fourth outfielder is almost certainly a veteran, and any veteran is going to want a certain number of plate appearances. Those plate appearances will not exist if Castellanos, Marsh and Rojas play as much as the Phillies hope they’ll play. (They seem to figure that Cristian Pache and Jake Cave can pick up the remaining at-bats.)
But desperate times call for desperate measures. If a veteran outfielder is lingering on the market as Spring Training approaches, perhaps they might come to Philly without expectations. And that is why Dombrowski has said the Phillies will continue to keep an open mind
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It’s funny, Bryce Harper‘s first five seasons with the Philadelphia Phillies are viewed as a resounding success, despite the fact that he’s played in 140 or more games just two times across that half decade.
Of course, the 2020 season was shortened to 60 games because of the COVID-19 pandemic, and Harper, despite dealing with a back injury, played in 58 contests during that bizarre season. But he was limited to 99 games in 2022, in large part because he fractured his left thumb when San Diego Padres pitcher Blake Snell hit him with a pitch in late June. Harper’s recovery from Tommy John surgery went extremely well, but he still only appeared in 126 regular season games in 2023 after missing the entire first month of the campaign.
Heck, even when Harper won NL MVP in 2021, he still spent time on the injured list early in the summer as he dealt with a left forearm contusion. Harper appeared in 141 games in 2021, overcoming missing 21 games by posting a 1.044 OPS to win the senior circuit’s top honor for the second time.
All of that is said to say this: the Phillies should have Harper for the most games in 2024 since 2019, when he played 157 games in his first season in red pinstripes. The possibility for injuries always exists, but Harper has had some freak injuries (getting hit in the face and on his left thumb) over the past three seasons that don’t happen to a player most years. Now that he’s had Tommy John surgery once, there’s no reason to think he’ll have any right elbow issues moving forward, especially considering that he’s shifted from right field to first base on a full-time basis. And Lord willing, there won’t be another pandemic that causes the 162-game MLB schedule to be slashed by more than 50%.
When Harper has been on the field over the last three seasons, he’s been one of the league’s elite offensive players. Since the start of the 2021 season, Harper has slashed .297/.402/.546 with 74 home runs, 221 RBIs and a .948 OPS. And even with his struggles in Games 6 and 7 of the 2023 NLCS against the Arizona Diamondbacks acknowledged, Harper has been dominant in back-to-back postseason runs, homering 11 times and driving in 21 runs in 30 playoff games.
So if you’re wondering how the Phillies could potentially close the gap in the NL East between them and the Atlanta Braves, having a healthier Harper could go a long way. Over the last two years, Harper has played in 225 of a possible 324 regular season games. Certainly, that’s contributed to the Phillies not mounting serious NL East runs in either 2022 or 2023. Harper being healthier in 2024 alone won’t close the gap between the Phillies and Braves, who have won six consecutive NL East titles. But it could be one factor that leads to more of a competitive race between the two rivals in 2024.
Manager Rob Thomson will still have to pace Harper, even if the seven-time All-Star wants to play every day. When he played 157 games in 2019, Harper was 26. He’s now 31, and coming off of back-to-back deep postseason runs with the hope for a third in 2024. Trying to play 162 games in 2023, even if that includes some days at DH, isn’t a smart or realistic goal. But if Harper can play 150 games in 2024, that could help push the Phillies towards being a team that wins 95-ish games, as opposed to 90 a year ago.
