Even so, Alek Manoah is still someone the St. Louis Cardinals should consider trading for.
There were rumors early in the offseason that the Toronto Blue Jays were open to trading Alek Manoah, their former ace. Manoah had an even better sophomore season in 2021 to cap off a fantastic rookie year. The 6’6″ right-hander pitched 196.2 innings with 31 starts and a 2.24 ERA. He came in third place as the American League Cy Young Award finalist. It was almost impossible to imagine that the Blue Jays would let him go at that point. He was elite, young, and frugal with money. That combination is uncommon.
Then 2023 arrived. Alek Manoah arguably had the worst season of anyone. His expectations were so high that they went up in smoke. Manoah was 57% better than a league-average pitcher during his first two big league seasons, as indicated by his ERA+ of 157. That mark is unbelievable. But in 2023, he had an ERA+ of 72, which was 28% below the league average for pitchers. There was a significant decline. The 3.22 ERA he recorded as a rookie was much lower than the 5.87 ERA he recorded this time around. Manoah’s walk rate tripled to an unsustainable 6.1 walks per nine innings pitched between 2022 and 2023. While his home run rate doubled and he gave up almost half as many hits as he struck out, his strikeout rate remained constant.
Manoah actually started for Toronto’s rookie ball affiliate in the Florida Complex League at one point during the season. It’s probably not worth reading too much into it because it was an odd situation, but it still needs to be discussed. Manoah gave up an astounding eleven runs in just 2.2 innings. His FCL ERA when he left that day was 37.13. That was the icing on Manoah’s horrific season. A little better, he made a later comeback to the major leagues. Sadly, an injury cut short his season in the first part of August.
Manoah is still someone the Cardinals should look at, even after such a difficult season. They ought to be enthusiastic. His value should be substantially lower than it was a year ago, and he still has three years of control remaining. Despite some injury concerns in 2023, he has maintained good health throughout his career. Going forward, injury is not a major concern. It’s also important to note that, at the 2023 trade deadline, the Cardinals completed three trades with the Blue Jays. They’ve established a fruitful cooperation between organizations. Considering everything, Manoah is an elite pitcher and the Cardinals don’t have many elite pitchers. As a result, they should target him. He would immediately enhance the rotation by falling in line behind Sonny Gray.
It’s hard to tell how much the Blue Jays value Manoah. Maybe his bad performance was an anomaly. Though it’s unclear if he can repeat the success of the first two seasons, he’s unquestionably much better than he was in 2023. There are also reports of off-field problems, but it’s unclear how those will affect Manoah’s chances of staying in Toronto in the future. They probably still want a respectable return, but probably not as high as what the White Sox or Marlins are hoping to get for their young pitchers. Manoah would not order Donovan or Gorman, that much is certain.
It’s well known that the Blue Jays need outfield assistance. They might be interested in Alec Burleson or Dylan Carlson. Toronto should be very interested if one of these players is packaged with a respectable pitching arm. Given that they dealt Robberse away at the 2023 deadline in the Jordan Hicks trade, perhaps they would be interested in acquiring him again. Here is where the Cardinals could really get fancy and package a number of players. They might also be able to sign Nate Pearson, a former top prospect who has had difficulty establishing himself early in his career.
Josh Jacobs and I recently built our own mock trades for the Noot News Podcast, and my final deal had the Cardinals and Blue Jays teaming up with the Yankees to acquire Clayton Beeter and Alek Manoah in a three-team trade. With any luck, the Cardinals can put something together in time for Spring Training to strengthen their rotation!
