At opposite ends of the competitive cycle, Red Wings and Lightning are feeling the heat.
The Tampa Bay Lightning and Detroit Red Wings are in distinct phases of their respective competitive cycles. Additionally, there probably won’t be space for both in the postseason given how the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference are currently stacked. The Lightning are working extremely hard to stay in the playoff picture for the first time since 2017 while the Red Wings are making a valiant effort to return to the picture for the first time since 2016. Since New Year’s Day, Detroit and Tampa Bay have emerged as two of the league’s hottest teams due to their urgency to win now. By points percentage since the start of the calendar year, Detroit is the third-best team in the league, while the Bolts are
However, when looking at the whole regular season, the Wings and Lightning are strikingly similar: they both play terrible defense and have a 3.48 goals-for average per game. Tampa has the tenth-highest goals-against average (3.28), while the Red Wings have allowed the 11th-highest goals per game (3.22). With the Red Wings ranked seventh and the Lightning ranked fifteenth in 2024 alone, both teams’ defenses have recently improved. However, Detroit and Tampa Bay still need to do better in their own zone if they want to have a well-balanced attack.
On Wednesday, the Lightning will activate defenseman Mikhail Sergachev from the Long-Term Injured Reserve of the league. That move eliminates their cap space. A further concern for them is the future of star winger Steven Stamkos, who will become a UFA at the end of the season. Conversely, the Wings have $7.4 million in cap space right now. If only to prevent Chris Tanev from being dealt to an Atlantic rival like Toronto or Ottawa, they can and should be in the market for a defenseman.
Currently, though, the Wings and Lightning rank among the league’s most unpredictable teams. In terms of standings points, Tampa Bay leads the Maple Leafs by one, while Detroit and Toronto are tied. However, the Leafs have two games remaining on both, so we think Toronto is slightly more at ease in this postseason matchup. In theory, the Leafs are a stronger team than the Bolts and Wings, so they will also be active in trade negotiations.
Naturally, that does not preclude the possibility of change. However, there is undoubtedly a scenario in which Detroit and Tampa Bay are battling it out for a wild-card spot in the multiverse. Once more, we’re talking about two teams that are at completely different points in their competitive cycles, so it could very well come down to the last few weeks and days of the regular season. Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois will have to make some difficult choices regarding his group of players if Tampa Bay is unable to make it to the postseason. Wings supporters who have had enough of disappointment will be dealt a devastating blow if Detroit misses out on the playoffs.
Both teams will suffer from missing the postseason, but the consequences will vary depending on which team misses out. More criticism will be directed at Wings General Manager Steve Yzerman than at any other time in his career, and BriseBois’s long-term plan for success will start to come under scrutiny. Because the NHL is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately organization, Detroit and Tampa Bay will face a lot of backlash if they are unable to secure a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Yzerman has a strong history with the Bolts and Wings as a player and executive. However, his current squad is just as much pressure to win as is there given the level of parity in the game.
