Wolves’ Fox in the Box: Jørgen Strand Larsen’s Emergence Ends the Search for Raúl Jiménez’s Heir..
Wolves lacked an impactful centre-forward for several years, but Jørgen Strand Larsen seems to have filled the void amid an encouraging debut season.
Jørgen Strand Larsen’s first season at Wolves was never likely to be a stroll in the park, and in many ways it’s been tougher than predicted because the team failed to even meet fairly modest expectations for a big chunk of the campaign.
But in a season that’s mostly been defined by a battle against Premier League relegation, something Wolves have ultimately won with ease since Vitor Pereira’s arrival, Strand Larsen’s emergence is undeniably a real reason for optimism.
Lured from Celta Vigo last summer for a reported £26 million, Strand Larsen addressed a specific need in a team that lacked a proper focal point.
While Matheus Cunha and Hwang Hee-chan impressed last season, neither are genuine centre-forwards. Really, it’s a gap they’ve struggled to fill ever since Raúl Jiménez suffered a fractured skull in November 2020.
The Mexican, justifiably, was unable to rediscover his best level for Wolves in front of goal after his long lay-off, scoring just six times in 49 league games before then enjoying something of a resurgence at Fulham.
Fabio Silva, Sasa Kalajdzic and Diego Costa weren’t able to pick up the slack on the goalscoring front; Hwang and Cunha managed to last term, though Wolves still lacked a presence to lead the line.
Strand Larsen caught the eye in Spain as a physical frontman who could be a reliable threat in the box, getting goals with instinctive finishes or headers. His profile understandably made him an attractive option for English clubs, and given the context of Wolves’ rather turbulent 2024-25, it’s fair to say he’s made a promising start.
Much of that comes down to the presence he has and impact he’s made in front of goal.Jorgen Strand Larsen goals
Although the Norwegian endured a frustrating run early this year that saw him spend time out injured, thus contributing to a Premier League goal drought stretching over two months, Strand Larsen has shown predatory instincts in the danger zone.
These were plain to see right from the start of his Wolves career, which was a baptism of fire as they went up against Arsenal and Chelsea in their opening two matches of the season.
The first of those, against Arsenal, pitted Strand Larsen against arguably the best centre-back pairing in the Premier League, and on another day he’d have scored his maiden goal in English football.
Hwang received possession on the right and delivered a cross from deep that Strand Larsen met with a glancing header, drawing a fine one-handed save from David Raya. But what you wouldn’t have seen if you’d just been watching the ball was the movement of Strand Larsen, as he got into William Saliba’s blind spot as if running towards the back post, before darting in front of the Frenchman to make the room for the header.
Strand Larsen Screenshot 1 vs Arsenal
Strand Larsen Screenshot 2 vs Arsenal
Strand Larsen Screenshot 3 vs Arsenal
The save acted as a reminder to Strand Larsen about the level of the competition. “Oh my God, welcome to the Prem,” he said on the Wolves Unpacked podcast when looking back on that moment.
Nevertheless, that move has become something of a feature of Strand Larsen’s game, and by his own admission, is something he’s worked on frequently having only really learnt to play that way in the past few years.
“He always wants to train on bits, do extra around the trainings, and that’s something that’ll serve him well,” Ian Burchnall, a member of Gary O’Neil’s coaching staff prior to Pereira’s December arrival, told Opta Analyst.
That same move was evident in the November defeat at Bournemouth, but this time he found the net after out-witting Illia Zabarnyi…
Strand Larsen Screenshot 1 vs Bournemouth
Strand Larsen Screenshot 2 vs Bournemouth
Strand Larsen Screenshot 3 vs Bournemouth
“His movement inside the box is excellent, top,” Burchnall adds.
“You could see that the more crosses get put into the box, the more of a threat he is because he attacks them so well. He kind of drifts off the back of defenders, and the timing of his movements inside the box [was excellent].”
While not every attempt or goal requires such thought or anticipation, this is reflective of a broader predatory nature that Strand Larsen possesses.
For instance, among players to have attempted at least 20 shots, only four have seen a greater proportion be taken inside the area than his 95.9% (47/49) – and yet, curiously, he’s the only player to have scored with 100% of his shots from outside the box among those who’ve attempted more than one from past the 18-yard line.
Jorgen Strand Larsen shots
As a centre-forward, the proportion of his shots taking place in the area tells us a reasonable amount about Strand Larsen’s mindset and the type of striker he is – a genuine focal point and almost something of a throwback, or a classic number nine.
Of course, taking most of your shots in the area doesn’t in isolation mean you’re a great centre-forward or a good finisher, but Strand Larsen can certainly claim to have been reliable in those decisive moments.
For starters, he’s hit the target with 65.3% of his shots in the top flight this term, which is the highest proportion of all players to have played at least 900 minutes and attempted three or more shots.
And furthermore, among the 193 players who’ve recorded more than 15 shots (excluding penalties) in the Premier League this term, only two have averaged a greater average non-penalty expected goals (xG) figure than Strand Larsen (0.19), which reflects his ability to find dangerous positions.
Jorgen Strand Larsen xG map
Such reliability and positional understanding is particularly key for a player in a team who spent a chunk of the season scrapping for any points they could get their hands on, and it also translates to a good track record in relation to actually beating the goalkeeper.
With 12 goals in the Premier League this term from 31 games, he’s one away from matching the total he tallied from 37 appearances in La Liga last term; the best he’s managed in any single domestic season is 14 for Groningen in the 2021-22 Eredivisie campaign.
With five games to go and on a hot streak that’s seen him score five times in as many games, it’s entirely plausible that Strand Larsen could become only the second Wolves player (or third if Cunha reaches the landmark first) to score 15 goals in a Premier League season.
Twelve goals from a total 49 shots is efficient, too. That equates to a conversion rate of 24.5%, which only four players (min. 900 mins played and 15+ shots) can better this term.
Premier League shot conversion
“His finishing is good,” Burchnall adds, with Strand Larsen’s 12 non-penalty goals from 9.3 non-pen xG at least partly explained by this.
“I think he’s unlucky not to have four or five goals more. I remember Newcastle, there was a save by Nick Pope that was unbelievable, and two by Matz Sels against Nottingham Forest just after [O’Neil and his coaching staff] left. I was like, ‘Jesus, so unlucky’.”
Strand Larsen’s output does highlight, however, a certain degree of reliance on service. He isn’t a dynamic ball carrier who’s effective at creating chances for himself, for example. As such, his rather modest average of 1.8 shots per 90 minutes suggests the supply to him could be better.
And this isn’t lost on him.
Wolves have attempted the fifth-fewest open-play crosses (341) this season. While they improve slightly in the rankings to 11th when looking at crosses as a proportion of passes in the opposition’s half (4.96%), it’s stands to reason that Wolves could play to Stand Larsen’s strengths even more.
And there have been strides to a degree; they recorded 160 open-play crosses – the fifth fewest – before O’Neil’s dismissal (16 matches) and 181 – the seventh fewest – since Pereira was appointed (17 matches). But there’s still progress to be made, Strand Larsen thinks.
“We are still trying to get more crosses in,” he told Wolves Unpacked. “I’m a little bit frustrated sometimes, because you have a big ‘nine’ but sometimes I’m maybe a little bit alone there [in the box], so that’s why the crosses are not coming in… I think that’s something as a team we can work on more.”
Quite. Among players to have attempted at least nine headed shots (excluding those blocked) in the Premier League this term, only two have got a greater proportion on target than Strand Larsen (9/13 – 69.2%).
Jorgen Strand Larsen headers
“I think I get on the end of most crosses, so the more we get in, the more chances to score,” he added.
The influence of Cunha likely has an impact here. After all, the Brazilian is their most talented player, and delivering more crosses towards Strand Larsen isn’t necessarily going to directly benefit the reported Manchester United target.
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