Defense Rankings and Analysis for Week 9: The best defense is a good defense
It’s always satisfying when your defense scores points, but in week nine, the Indianapolis defense performed admirably against Carolina—even if you ignore the two pick-6s. I won’t hold it against the Colts; the Panther offense is undoubtedly among the worst in the league.
With 13 Carolina points in 12 drives, their defensive performance is in the 83rd percentile and they only score 1.08 points per drive. The Colts’ 63% Drive Success Rate, the ninth lowest of the week, came from holding the Panthers to just 17 first downs over 27 series. With three turnovers, Indianapolis limited Carolina’s drives, requiring an average of 22.2 yards per drive (the fifth-lowest).
The Colts actually held the Panther offense to -1 points for the week, which ranks them #1 in PPD and moves the Colts defense’s season total ranking to 21st (up from 25th). This is because my Points per Drive metric nets offensive points with defensive scores.
Carolina’s poor yardage (7th lowest yds/ply) made it difficult for them to convert on first downs (8th lowest 1st/ply). In addition to not giving up any penalty first downs, the Colts also committed three turnovers, which resulted in numerous Panther drives that were unsuccessful.
It should come as no surprise that Bryce Young had one of the lowest EPA efficiencies of any quarterback this week (tied for third worst EPA/d), as pick-6s are known to kill EPA. That performance had such a profound effect that the Colts defensive season passing rank moved up from 23rd to 15th.Turnovers have less of an impact in the Passer Success Rate metric because it assigns equal weight to negative plays. Nevertheless, in week nine, Young’s Success rate dropped to the fourth worst of the season. In addition, he had four sacks and the fourth-lowest yardage efficiency of the entire week.
Although Young has been among the worst quarterbacks in the league, some may dispute this, and I will give the Colts defense credit for making this game especially difficult for him.
The Colts had more trouble against the Carolina run game. With their 9th-highest YPC and 3rd-highest carry conversion rate, the Panthers had the 9th-highest adjuvant rushing success rate.
Fortunately, the game script forced Carolina to rely more on the pass, running on only 35% of their snaps, as the Colts were not very good at stopping the run. This could have been a completely different story if the Colts had fallen behind on the scoreboard.
The Colts run defense is ranked 24th overall this season.
For the defense, this was a much-needed game of rebounding. I could certainly point out how weak their opponent’s offense is and write off the result as the result of their weakness against the run, but I think I’m just going to enjoy this for a little while longer.
The New England Patriots, who rank second to last in the league in terms of points per drive (1.04 ppd), present the Colts with another easy offensive matchup. They rank 28th for the year with a Drive Success Rate of 64.3%. They turn the ball over frequently (24th) and have a poor average of yards (24th yds/ply).
Mac Jones has the 23rd-ranked passing success rate and the 28th-ranked passing EPA efficiency. He is only facing pressure ranked 28th, which is why he is producing such subpar results. A portion of that can be attributed to Belichick’s strategy of having him complete passes quickly and relying on YAC to gain passing yards (30th ttt, 23rd adot). Though they might not have enough time to remove him, the Colts pass rush could be able to force some mistakes.
With an adj Rush Success Rate of 24, the Patriots’ run game isn’t much better, but the Colts’ run defense is strong, so this is essentially a tie. Although the Pats rank 19th in yards per carry, they have the 6th best third-down rushing conversion rate, which allows them to effectively exploit the run. That could pose a challenge to the Colts’ subpar run defense on third downs. Let’s hope the Pats have to bail early on in the run because they are in a hole.
