estimating the top eight picks by the College Football Playoff committee
Ever since the College Football Playoff selection committee was established in 2014—the year Ohio State won the national championship with Cardale Jones, their third-string quarterback—it has been unwavering in its assessment of injuries to important players.
The group evaluated Ohio State that season based on how they played up to that point with whoever was in the starting lineup, refusing to speculate about what the team might look like without starting quarterback J.T. Barrett. Until Selection Day, Ohio State had never finished inside the top four.
The committee will follow that tradition this week despite the fact that its members have changed in terms of gender and experience in light of Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis’ injury sustained on Saturday against North Alabama in the first half. With backup Tate Rodemaker spearheading the offense, the Seminoles went on to win resoundingly.
It won’t be so much about Rodemaker if unbeaten Florida State drops to No. 5 in Tuesday’s rankings as it will be about Washington defeating its third-ranked foe of the year and second in as many weeks. The Seminoles might very well remain No. 4 as well. The selection committee has thought Florida State is the superior team thus far, despite the fact that Washington has a stronger resume.
Whether it still does in light of what it witnessed on Saturday night is the question.
But the committee will not shift Florida State based on speculation about the Noles’ chances of winning if Travis is sidelined for an extended period of time.
Here is a guess as to what the committee might do on Tuesday night in its fourth of six rankings, based on what happened on Saturday.
Playoff prospects: Georgia defeated a ranked opponent for the third time in a row, which should maintain the Bulldogs’ top ranking when the committee releases its most recent ranking. The Bulldogs should be unbeaten entering the SEC championship game against Alabama. They will finish their regular season against unranked rival Georgia Tech. The selection committee may find that Georgia, the defending SEC champion, is the only easy choice this season. The conundrum will be what to do in the event that Alabama wins the SEC championship game and the Bulldogs lose for the first time all season. The committee must determine that a team is “unequivocally” among the top four in the nation even if it does not win its conference. It also needs to think about its
The biggest challenge: If Georgia finishes as the SEC runner-up, other Power 5 contenders. Georgia should be concerned about every other Power 5 conference champion, starting with Texas, pushing it out for a semifinal berth if it doesn’t win the SEC. In this case, the one-loss Longhorns would have something Georgia does not: a double-digit victory over Alabama, the eventual SEC champion. If they win the Big 12. The Bulldogs would also have to worry about the Pac-12, which still features two contenders in Oregon and Washington, who are both unbeaten. In addition to Texas. It would be hard to exclude Florida State as the ACC champion while they are undefeated. And given that Michigan and Ohio State have both been in the committee’s rankings, the Big Ten champion is virtually a lock.
Potential playoff path: Ohio State is guaranteed a spot if it defeats Michigan and wins the Big Ten. Although the Buckeyes already have a strong resume, a pair of wins over highly regarded opponents in Michigan and Big Ten West champion Iowa would guarantee a spot in the postseason. Though it’s a different situation than it was the previous year, Ohio State still has a chance to finish in the top four if it doesn’t defeat Michigan. Ohio State defeated Penn State and Notre Dame, two teams ranked in the CFP top 25, once more in decisive fashion. However, the Buckeyes also secured the No. 4 ranking in the previous season when USC dropped out of the top four after losing in the Pac-12 championship game. Ohio State would find it more challenging to defeat a Power 5 champion this year, and it also
The biggest challenge is to avoid losing to Michigan for a third consecutive year. Since 1995 to 1997, Ohio State has not suffered three consecutive losses to the Wolverines. The Buckeyes are 44-4 overall under coach Ryan Day, with three of those four losses occurring in the CFP. They are 1-2 against the Wolverines. Against every other Big Ten team, including in the conference final, Day is 32-0. Day’s success will be determined by how well he performs in the playoffs and against Michigan, particularly in the absence of the team’s suspended head coach.
Prospective playoff matchups: The victor of The Game will take home the Big Ten East Division title and take on Iowa in the conference final. The Wolverines’ otherwise weak strength of schedule makes it very difficult for the committee to defend a top-four finish for Michigan in the absence of the Big Ten championship. Michigan played no Power 5 nonconference opponents during its opening four home games of the season. The only time Michigan would have defeated a team ranked in the CFP top 25 would have been against Penn State. At least two tiebreakers involving multiple other contenders, such as conference title and strength of schedule, would be lost by Michigan.
The biggest challenge: Ohio State without Jim Harbaugh. The most significant test of the season for Michigan will take place while Harbaugh serves the last game of a three-game suspension. The committee members will talk about Harbaugh’s absence during their deliberations, just like they would with any other important player or coach who is absent due to an illness, injury, suspension, or other circumstance. That does not justify defeat. They touch on it in their discussion of whether Michigan can still contend for the top four in the absence of Harbaugh. Despite the Wolverines’ 2-0 record under interim coach Sherrone Moore, Ohio State coach Ryan Day presents a different kind of chess match for Moore, whose advantage in big-game experience may play a role.
