The 2024 projection system is optimistic about the young players for the Tigers.
On Saturday, July 15, 2023, in Seattle during a baseball game, Spencer Torkelson (20) and Riley Greene (31) of the Detroit Tigers wait for Kerry Carpenter after he scores on his three-run home run against the Seattle Mariners. (AP Image by Lindsey Wasson)
Offseason projection models haven’t produced anything positive for the Detroit Tigers in a few years.
Perhaps that is beginning to change.
The first significant algorithm to predict individual performance in 2024, Steamer Projections, has a reasonably optimistic outlook for the Tigers’ young players.
First baseman Spencer Torkelson and outfielder Riley Greene are favorites. Tarik Skubal is adored by it. Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy are ready to play in the major leagues.
A reputable and usually dependable projection system is Steamer. It provides a solid starting point for goals for the upcoming year. While some players will perform better than others, this is a good place to start.
Let’s address the offense first.
Weighted Runs Created, a single figure intended to represent a player’s total offensive contribution, will be used for simplicity’s sake. The league average, 100, is used as the scaling factor. Anything over that exceeds the MLB average, and anything below it falls short of the league standard.
Greene (115 wRC+) and Torkelson (115) are the offensive leaders, according to Steamer. That’s exactly what you hoped to see if, in the summer of 2020, you were picturing the Tigers’ lineup for 2024.
One of the Tigers’ best offensive players in 2023 was outfielder/DH Kerry Carpenter (107 wRC+), though Steamer isn’t as pessimistic about his expectations for 2024.
Even outfielder Akil Baddoo (101), who doesn’t appear to fit in the outfield as it is set up right now, managed a respectable amount of points.
With very respectable projections for Andy Ibanez (99), Tyler Nevin (99), Matt Vierling (98), Nick Maton (91), and Zach McKinstry (91), the Tigers still have no shortage of versatile players who can play all over the field.
Due to their defensive prowess, Ibanez, Vierling, and McKinstry currently appear to have a higher chance of making the squad than Nevin and Maton, whose roster spots are more precarious.
Players projected to contribute the most defensively are positioned in the lineup at the least productive offensive positions: shortstop Javier Baez (85), center fielder Parker Meadows (92), and catchers Jake Rogers (85) and Carson Kelly (89).
As long as Meadows remained a plus defender at Comerica Park, the Tigers would likely be more than happy with that output from him in his first full season.
Baez’s projected 2023 wRC+ of 65 would be a significant improvement over his 2023 total of 65, which may not seem like much for a player who still owes $98 million over the next four seasons.
The forecast shows less faith in Rogers, who recorded a 97 wRC+ in 2023.
In 2024, the Tigers will probably start young players like Malloy (107) and Keith (105) in the lineup, possibly even on Opening Day. At just 23 and 22 years old, respectively, both have enticingly high rookie projections. Not to be overlooked is Justice Bigbie (99), an outfielder who will look to build on his 2023 minor-league season of success.
There is some doubt mixed in with the optimism when it comes to pitching.
Skubal (4.0 WAR, 3.33 ERA) is adored by Steamer, and rightfully so. After returning from the injured list in July, Skubal was unstoppable.
Making their debuts in 2023, Reese Olson (2.0 WAR, 4.22 ERA) and Sawyer Gipson-Long (1.6 WAR, 4.36 ERA) are regarded as solid back-of-the-rotation options.
The doubts then start to surface, though.
Steamer is not overly fond of Casey Mize (1.1 WAR, 4.64 ERA), who hasn’t pitched since April 14, 2022, and spent all this season rehabbing after Tommy John surgery. The projection is even more pessimistic about Matt Manning (1.0 WAR, 4.77 ERA), who has battled injuries but posted a 3.51 ERA in 27 starts over the last two seasons.
Joey Wentz (0.5 WAR, 4.48 ERA), Alex Faedo (0.4 WAR, 4.02 ERA), and Spencer Turnbull (0.7 ERA, 4.18 ERA) could provide additional starting support.
With no other options left, Wentz and Faedo must be added to the roster for Opening Day or risk being placed on waivers. Turnbull is attempting to recover from a dismal 2023 campaign.
With Will Vest (0.5 WAR, 3.66 ERA), Jason Foley (0.4 WAR, 3.79 ERA), Alex Lange (0.3 WAR, 3.92 ERA), and Tyler Holton (0.3 WAR, 3.94 ERA), the Tigers have a strong core in the bullpen.
Steamer also likes Brendan White (0.3 WAR, 3.87 ERA), who debuted in Major League Baseball in 202
