Braves Possible short-term free agent starting pitchers still available
The reason the Atlanta Braves haven’t addressed their rotation yet isn’t a lack of funding. Along with basically paying for the rights to Jarred Kelenic, who will start in left field, they have also invested a significant amount of money in strengthening the bullpen. FanGraphs estimates that their current luxury tax payroll will exceed $260 million, far exceeding the Braves’ historical spending caps.
Even so, Atlanta’s roster had perhaps the biggest hole going into the offseason that hasn’t been filled. With so much money already committed to 2024, it’s difficult to see them pursuing one of the biggest names still available in free agency. A trade would seem like a much better option, but with the Braves’ desolate farm system, it’s hard to imagine Alex Anthopoulos would part with players like Hurston Waldrep or AJ Smith-Shawver. If not, he might have to look for a starting pitcher at the discount store.
Based on Seth Lugo’s most recent three-year contract with the Royals, I could see Lucas Giolito signing a four-year deal in free agency, as most predict. Should that be the case, Giolito ought to seize the chance immediately. He does seem like a viable one-year candidate to me, though. Despite having had a couple of bad seasons, he was once thought to be a lock to win the Cy Young award. In an effort to win a World Series, increase his market value, and make even more of an impact the following offseason, perhaps he would be open to a one-year deal with the Braves. It’s also important to remember that Giolito and Max Fried were rivals in high school. He is taking some risk, but there could be big rewards.
Jack Flaherty was a teammate of Max Fried’s in high school, but injuries have destroyed his career. Nevertheless, he managed to start 27 games in the previous campaign. Although Flaherty is another player who might be more interested in a one-year deal, betting on himself and signing a much more lucrative contract this time next year, someone will probably take a chance on his upside and give him a multi-year contract.
The Yankees acquired Montas at the trade deadline of the previous season with the intention of stabilizing their rotation. Sadly, injuries had other ideas as he only appeared in one game this year and made just eight starts over the previous season and a half. With a 3.37 ERA in 2021, Montas placed sixth in the AL Cy Young competition. Before being traded to the Yankees the following year, he had an even better 3.18 ERA. According to reports, Montas is now fully recovered, so it makes sense to sign a one-year contract to increase his value.
From 2017 to 2019, Paxton had a three-year span in which he was a front-runner with a 3.54 ERA and 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he has suffered from a number of injuries since, including Tommy John surgery in 2021 that kept him out of action for the entirety of 2022, much like many of the guys on this list. This season, Paxton made a comeback to the Red Sox, where he put up a respectable 4.50 ERA and 9.5 K/9 in 19 starts. He has some upside and, at 35, is probably in line for a one-year deal worth about $10 million.
What about a well-known face? Over the past three seasons, Wood has had ups and downs. While he has a 4.41 ERA, his 3.85 FIP is far more respectable. His strikeout percentage dropped to 17.2% this year from 23.6% in 2022, but he is a seasoned player who is well-known to the team, so a one-year deal shouldn’t be too expensive.
