Rankings of the MLB farm system for 2024: Prospect analysis and forecasts
After listing the top 100 MLB prospects for the 2024 season, let’s examine the comparative strengths and weaknesses of each of the 30 major league farm systems.
Having the greatest farm system in baseball is nice, but it is still a long way from what major league teams truly desire: victories. Because of this, it’s crucial to keep in mind that some teams that are close to the bottom of these farm system rankings are there either because they have recently graduated a number of young core players and are waiting on the next group, or because they are consistently winning (often subtracting prospects as frequently as they are adding them). Both of those are excellent results and the intended outcome of this.
I followed my previous versions’ methodology for the most part when compiling these rankings of all 30 organizations. After Craig Edwards’ research at FanGraphs revealed empirical surplus dollar values for each prospect’s future value tier, we can now objectively rank farm systems based on my individual team lists. This ranking will be released the following week. Craig Edwards is currently employed by the MLB Players Association.
This method has the advantage that you can use your own discretion to challenge a ranking if, for example, a team has $500,000 more talent than another but the lower-ranked team has prospects you like better. This provides you the ability to determine the precise proximity of each team and a more detailed perspective
I’ve been compiling prospect rankings, including farm rankings, for the past five years. It has chronicled the ascent, zenith, and current minor downturn of the Orioles’ farm system. You may be laughing at the idea that being my best-rated farm system by $64 million marks the start of the downturn, but in this instance it is:
2020: With 211 million dollars, ranked 17th and “in the middle of a top-down rebuild.”
8th place in 2021 ($256 million) “starting to see some results of their rebuild.”
2022: In first place ($344 million) “Elias appears to have taken what worked from the Astros while leaving behind the stuff nobody wanted.”
2023: In first place ($466 million) “in line with recent top farm systems … the best … [were] just above $500 million.”
As a result, the number is a little lower this year, though Jackson Holliday, the best baseball prospect, who is valued at $112 million and has a strong chance of graduating by June, will also play a major role in helping the O’s success at that point. By then, San Diego, which isn’t losing any of its best prospects, ought to be tied with Baltimore for first place.
Even though all of this is extremely nitpicky, I bring it up because it will be significant when the Orioles eventually lose first place. Holliday is continuing an almost unbelievable run in which the Orioles have had the top prospect in baseball for three straight seasons: Adley Rutschman in 2022, Gunnar Henderson in 2023, and Rutschman nearly tied the record in 2021 when he finished second.
You can read the other four linked previous rankings for some details about how this happened and how I perceived the progress, including how I don’t love the top-down rebuild as a strategy even though O’s general manager Mike Elias seems to have mastered it. Baltimore is drafting and developing well, mixing in some effective trades and now getting real results in the international market.
The Orioles had a very similar type of player for a few years (power first, some defensive/athletic value, Baltimore then extracts enough walks/contact to make it all work). Just when I thought I had them figured out, they selected Enrique Bradfield Jr., a slashing, 80-grade runner, in the first round of last summer’s draft.
Yes, the farm rankings numbers have been updated. I had already written this blurb prior to the news of the Corbin Burnes trade and the new ownership group surfacing. Perhaps this week marked the start of a new chapter in Orioles history, one where the team’s primary goal is to win games this season and doesn’t hesitate to increase payroll in order to make improvements.
