Dan Campbell and Ryan Day present opposing sides of the dumbest football debate ever: Jimmy Watkins
Ohio’s Cleveland — Dan Campbell wears his hat low and speaks in a strained tone while seated in the loser’s chair. He wipes his face, bemoans his broken heart, and gets ready for the big reveal.
Actually, Campbell does resemble someone else quite a bit. The same question was answered and a similar heartbreak was bemoaned by Ohio State coach Ryan Day two months prior while he sat in a similar chair.
Day scored twice on fourth-and-short plays in Ohio State’s November 30–24 loss to Michigan. In Sunday’s 34-31 loss to the 49ers, Campbell trusted his offense twice on fourth down in field goal range. Both coaches ended up on the same side of football’s silliest argument, despite taking different paths.
Should I kick or run? Go for seven points or settle for three? The choice that works is the best one when it comes to fourth-and-makeable, also known as fourth-and-kickable. A coach faces condemnation from one of two online juries, neither of whom has ever made a mistake, if they have the folly to choose failure, which is another way of saying that if you trust his philosophy but fall short. Or they wouldn’t ever admit it, anyway.
People who have watched football for a long time and value intuition and a bird in the hand are known as “take the points” supporters. This jury witnessed aggressiveness gone wrong when Campbell declined to kick field goals that would have tied the game at 27 in the fourth quarter or put the Lions ahead 27-10 in the third. It was thought that Campbell was seduced into pursuing every extra point or possession imaginable by analytics, a catch-all word for the sophisticated data that coaches use to make critical decisions. No risk assessment was thought to be necessary. Subsequently, the jury deemed Detroit’s coach a lunatic for adhering to the same assertive mindset that propelled him to the NFC championship game.
“Looking back is easy,” Campbell remarked on Sunday. “I understand. That’s difficult, though, because I don’t regret those choices. since we failed to deliver. It was unable to succeed. But I regret not doing so. I’m not. I am aware that I will be scrutinized. That’s just part of the job, dude. But things simply didn’t work out.
The “go for it” crowd, who support statistical models that complement rather than replace a coach’s decision tree, finds resonance in Campbell’s remarks. This jury witnessed bravery that Day lacked in the first half of the game against Michigan when Campbell trusted his offense. The jury saw two opportunities to change a one-score loss when Day punted on fourth and one and kicked a long field goal on fourth and three. Day also maintained his position following
“The other team gets the ball if you go for it on fourth down and don’t get it,” Day stated following the game. “I would have chosen to attempt a field goal if there had been eight minutes remaining in the second quarter or the half’s end.”
That is Ohio State’s football coach educating a member of the football media about the game’s regulations and, subtly, the fourth-down conversation. This reporter obviously doesn’t understand that Michigan could have regained possession of the ball, just like any opponent in the great dumb debate! See, don’t you? Earlier in the half, Day’s offense had given Michigan a touchdown! See, don’t you?
Had Jayden Fielding of Ohio State made the kick, or had Campbell allowed Lions kicker Michael Badgely to try, the Buckeyes would have tied the game with just a field goal on their final drive, and the Lions could have forced overtime out of the 49ers, if not defeated them in regular time. Michigan and San Francisco profited because Fielding didn’t, or because the Lions didn’t allow Badgley to try.
Depending on how you’re looking at it. For Fielding, who had never tried a 50-yard field goal before Day asked him to against Michigan, the Buckeyes could have also advanced their position. Instead of depending on Badgley, who hadn’t kicked outside all season and only makes 77% of kicks beyond 40 yards, the Lions could have scored a touchdown on their fourth-down drives. Actually, both theories may have been suggested by the advanced data.
We can and most likely will converse in circles as long as these choices determine the outcome of games. Me? My preference is for Campbell and the nerds. I think a coach who trusts his offense thinks about what can happen when they succeed, whereas a coach who relies on field goals worries about not making the shot.
What am I aware of, though? How do any of us? Campbell’s outlook may have prevented the Lions from making the Super Bowl. Day’s may have, at the very least, cost Ohio State a Big Ten title. You’ve recently occupied the loser’s chair, regardless of whether you believe in taking the points or going all in.
