The Vikings’ loss to the Cowboys could be crucial.
Based on playoff simulations by the New York Times, the Vikings have a 25% chance to make the postseason going into Sunday’s action.
The Vikings could benefit from Detroit’s Saturday night loss to the Cowboys.
The Lions were 11-4 heading into Saturday night’s game in Dallas, trailing only the first-place 49ers (11-4) and second-place Philadelphia (11-4) in the NFC. With a victory over the Eagles and a superior conference record over the Lions, San Francisco is favored to start as the top seed. Philly’s superior strength of victory allowed them to hold the tiebreaker against the Lions.
Now at 11-5, a victory by the 49ers and Eagles on Sunday would guarantee the Lions the No. 3 seed. If that occurs, Detroit won’t have much motivation to start its best players when they play the Vikings in Week 18.
The 49ers are 14 points ahead of the 4-11 Washington Commanders on the road and the Eagles are 13 points ahead of the three-win Cardinals at home. As a result, the odds favor Detroit to lock up the third seed and not move up or down in the final week of the regular season.
All of that won’t matter if the Vikings lose to the Packers on Sunday Night Football; in order for the Vikings to have a shot at the postseason, they must win all two games remaining; the Rams will need to visit the New York Giants this week before concluding the regular season in San Francisco the following week, and the Seahawks will need to lose once to the Steelers before concluding the regular season on the road against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals the following week.
In the best-case scenario for Minnesota, the 49ers and Eagles triumph while the Rams or Seahawks lose. With just a victory at home against the Packers and a potential victory in Detroit against a team with nothing to play for, that would set the stage for the Vikings to take charge of their own destiny.
The Vikings start the season with a 25% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Upshot’s NFL playoff simulator, which is accessed through the New York Times. They have a shot, but they won’t have an easy ride to the postseason.
