Texans vs. Colts Prediction: An Analysis of the NFL’s Most Unexpected Major Week 18 Matchup
What a difference a year can make.
When the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans met in Indiana in Week 18 of the 2022 season, both teams were wrapping up chaotic and failure-ridden seasons while in the process of determining a new path forward.
One had already fired its head coach, and the other followed suit a mere hours after Houston delivered a 32-31 win in a game that impacted nothing more than draft positioning.
Fast forward 12 months, and these same two AFC South members will get together again at Lucas Oil Stadium with a whole lot more on the line.
The winner of Saturday’s clash (on ABC/ESPN) between the NFL’s two most improved teams of 2023 is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, while the loser will see its otherwise successful campaign come to an abrupt close.
It’s a scenario few could have envisioned after the Texans had the AFC’s worst record last season at 3-13-1 and the Colts finished just one win ahead of their division rival.
The origins of the Texans’ transformation into a postseason contender after a three-year run as the league’s laughingstock are quite evident.
They hired a culture-changing coach in DeMeco Ryans and drafted the most impactful rookie of this year’s class in C.J. Stroud, who sports the lowest interception percentage of any starting quarterback in 2023 while standing on the verge of becoming just the fifth first-year player with a 4,000-yard passing NFL season.
Indianapolis’ quick turnaround is perhaps even more impressive and something we admittedly didn’t see coming, as our supercomputer gave the Colts a 15.7% chance of making the AFC playoffs at the start of the regular season.
They’ve been outgained and outscored over the course of their 16 games and have played most of them without their own dynamic rookie quarterback after Anthony Richardson suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in NFL Week 5.
The Colts have been able to weather the storm due to veteran stand-in Gardner Minshew’s competent play and a knack for winning close games in coach Shane Steichen’s debut season, a quality the Texans have displayed as well under Ryans.
The model foresees another nip-and-tuck outcome for both combatants this week, giving Houston a razor-thin 51.5% chance to win and extend its season. The public has also tabbed the Texans as the best bets, making them current 1.0-point favorites after Indy opened as a 1.5-point choice.
So, let’s further break down this now-primetime monumental matchup that could even determine the AFC South champion, as the winner of this game would claim the division should the Jacksonville Jaguars continue their late-season downward spiral and lose to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday (the supercomputer gives Jacksonville a 63.5% chance to win).
Indianapolis, which came through with a 31-20 win in Houston back in Week 2, would also be crowned division champ in the event this game ends in a dreaded tie and the Titans beat the Jaguars.
The underdog Colts have vaulted into contention by winning six of their last eight games. Minshew’s improved decision-making over that stretch (which we’ll get more into later) has played a major role in the resurgence, but perhaps equally as important has been the rise to prominence of an Indianapolis pass rush that was nearly non-existent over the season’s first half.
Indianapolis had the lowest pressure rate of any team from Weeks 1-8 at 29.9%. The Colts have upped that number to 41.7% from Week 9 on, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL during that span, and they’ve registered sacks on a league-best 9.3% of opponent pass attempts over those eight games.
The Colts have done it behind a true collective effort, as they’re the only team to have four players with at least seven sacks. And most of that group consists of names likely unfamiliar to the majority of fans save for ultra-steady veteran tackle DeForest Buckner.
Buckner’s season numbers don’t jump off the screen, but the two-time Pro Bowler’s ability to draw constant double teams has created opportunities for guys like Samson Ebukam, Tyquan Lewis and Dayo Odeyingbo to consistently win 1-on-1 matchups.
Odeyingbo has 6.0 sacks in his last eight games and an adjusted sack rate of 6.6% during that stretch – fourth among edge defenders with 95 or more pass-rush attempts over that period. The versatile Lewis ranks fifth among edge players in pressure rate (23.7%) since Week 9 while being deployed both outside and along the interior.
Since the Colts blitz at the lowest rate of any team, it’s vital for them to create havoc from four-man rushes in order for coordinator Gus Bradley’s scheme to be at its most formidable.
A steady pass rush could also force the Texans to deviate from their preferred method of operation, which is to attack teams with downfield throws. Stroud’s 9.32 air yards per attempt is the second highest of any quarterback to take the majority of his team’s snaps, while his 12.86 yards per completion ranks third.
That game plan often puts the rookie sensation in stressful situations, though, and Stroud’s extended release time is a contributing factor to Houston allowing the fourth-highest rate of pressures at 42%.
