Cost of Top-3 Move-Up for the Broncos Told by Two Recent Draft Trades

There have been multiple whispers from the fan base that the Denver Broncos will select a quarterback of the future this year, with the team scheduled to pick at No. 12 overall in the 2024 NFL selection. As things stand, the majority of analysts predict that at least three quarterbacks will be selected in the top 10, which puts Denver in danger of, at most, settling for the class’s fourth signal-caller.

Although there is still much to be determined and the process is still in its early stages, there are a few issues with the next three candidates: Caleb Williams of USC, Drake Maye of North Carolina, and Jayden Daniels of LSU.

Michael Penix, Jr., a sixth-year senior from Washington, has a long history of injuries, including two ACL tears. Both Penix and Bo Nix of Oregon are worried about their ages since, at 24, they will be entering their rookie seasons as quarterbacks in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy of Michigan is a very young, raw player with amazing tools who teams will fall in love with if they can get beyond a few years of growing pains.

While Bo Nix of Oregon and Michael Penix, Jr., a sixth-year senior from Washington, are concerned about their ages, given that they will both be 24 years old when they begin their NFL rookie seasons as quarterbacks, J.J. McCarthy of Michigan is a very young, raw player with amazing tools that teams will fall in love with if they can get past a few years of growing pains.

The Broncos will need a large trade package to even come close to making that kind of advancement. Regarding estimating the price of such a trade, we have a few instances from the past ten years that may help us estimate the approximate amount.

2016 saw two Eagles trades.
With the 13th overall selection, the Philadelphia Eagles entered the 2016 NFL. After head coach Chip Kelly was ousted, the Eagles were in dire need of a long-term quarterback solution since Sam Bradford was not able to live up to expectations.

That offseason, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman showed he was a competitive player by making two trades during draft month to move up to the No. 2 overall pick.

In exchange for the No. 8 overall pick, the Miami Dolphins received the No. 13 overall pick, linebacker Kiko Alonso, and cornerback Byron Maxwell. The Eagles sent pick 8, two first-round and fourth-round picks from the same class, a 2017 first-round pick, and a 2018 second-round pick to the Cleveland Browns in exchange for the No. 2 overall pick, which went to Carson Wentz of North Dakota State. The second trade took place approximately a week before the draft began.

Even while this seems like a lot of money, the Eagles in the first deal really pulled off a huge steal. In order to avoid salary cap penalties, Miami was eager to sign high-dollar players at the time. The Eagles capitalized on this by offering middle-of-the-road guys enhanced contracts.

It is more unlikely that the Broncos will be able to complete a comparable transaction given that Philadelphia was also able to locate a partner ready to take those guys. The Broncos do have veteran players on big contracts, so it’s not like they lack tradeable assets.

For a few months now, there have been rumors circulating that Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Justin Simmons would be moved for draft capital. Finding a team ready to go down in exchange for those guys and having enough salary cap room is the challenge. They would also have to deal with a big shift in the last eight years in terms of draft pick and positional worth.

Therefore, while it would be simple to project the Tennessee Titans, who own the No. 7 overall pick, $68 million in salary cap space, and a big need at wide receiver and in the secondary, as a possible team to trade Jeudy and Simmons to, it is unclear what they would do with them.

Denver lacks the draft money necessary to make the second trade-up that moved Philadelphia up to the No. 2 overall pick. Philadelphia, even after jumping up from No. 13 to 8 overall in the draft, had nine draft choices available to them in 2016.

The Eagles could afford to keep their third- and fourth-round picks from the second deal and still use them to bolster their squad going forward. The Broncos just don’t have that luxury this season unless they can acquire additional picks for those aforementioned guys over the summer. They have only six selections and voids all over the roster.